Republicans are very sympathetic to the concept of marriage, but less sympathetic to the spending, programs, and policies that most families claim to want.
A longtime theme of the American Family Survey has been a focus on policies proposed to help families. Some are popular, some are not. This year, as we look back on a decade’s worth of data, we look at what policies each party is most likely to support or oppose. While we note common ground, both parties seem to approach family policy with certain blinders and biases prominently displayed.
Our discussion of Democrats can be found here.
The 2024 American Family Survey data make clear that while Americans do not want the government encouraging more children — and by the standards of building a political coalition the fact that fewer than 3 in 10 support something makes it indistinguishable from nonexistent — every other proposal ranges from near majority support to super-majority support. Promoting marriage is popular (in contrast to encouraging kids).
But Republicans are simply not as interested in some of these programs — especially certain types of Republicans. Three areas of reluctance stand out: supporting unmarried parents, spending more on government and community programs, and providing more support to low-income families. The latter two ideas have clear super-majority support among the public (63% and 64%, respectively). Supporting unmarried couples is more controversial, though support is still near a majority — and studies have shown that this group needs more support and could benefit from support more than married couples.
However, despite general levels of support for these ideas, there is unlikely to be the political will to do any of these useful things — even the ones that have super-majority support — without some significant Republican support. Are there Republicans who can be talked into these ideas? The data suggest some subgroups may be more likely to support these policies.
While self-described conservative Republicans like the idea of helping unmarried parents only slightly more than they like the idea of government encouraging of offspring, self-labeled moderate Republicans (about 30% of the party with another 4% of Republicans describing themselves as “liberal”) like the idea quite a bit more. Obviously, helping unmarried parents is still not a terrifically popular idea with even the moderate Republicans, but this group is far more sympathetic to the idea. And if someone (J.D. Vance, for instance?) wanted to put together a coalition that really helped families of all stripes, this would be the place to look.
In slight contrast, support for spending more on programs and on support for low-income families is clearly stronger — even among the more conservative Republicans. But here the moderate and churchgoing Republicans (defined as attending church at least a couple of times a month) are much more likely to want to help. In fact, 52% of moderate Republicans favor spending more on government and community programs and a similar number favor more support to low-income families. Similar jumps can be found among the Republicans who attend church.
What is the lesson from all of this?
Family policy is an increasing area of partisan interest. In late 2024, Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri proposed a $5,000 tax credit for families. (For their part, Democrats across the board had run on a series of programs to reform and expand various educational and welfare programs.) It was an interesting proposal, though clearly one that would have important implications for the budget deficit. Noting the data in the chart, such a policy might run into trouble with more conservative-minded Republicans (though we note that our poll never specifically tested Hawley’s proposal). It would likely be more popular with moderate Republicans, who would definitely favor a range of policies.
The problem facing pro-family policymakers is that the enthusiasm for policy to help families is clearly divided across the parties, and the goal of helping families will require a coalition that brings together moderates and church-going partisans to help families in a full-spectrum fashion. What would this full-spectrum support for families entail? Not merely rhetorical support for the idea of families or appeals to family values, but also a commitment to programs and spending that will help families flourish.The problem facing pro-family policymakers is that the enthusiasm for policy to help families is clearly divided across the parties, and the goal of helping families will require a coalition that brings together moderates and church-going partisans to help families in a full-spectrum fashion. What would this full-spectrum support for families entail? Not merely rhetorical support for the idea of families or appeals to family values, but also a commitment to programs and spending that will help families flourish.
To get the requisite group of Republicans into a broad-based coalition that supports institutions and spending on families requires reaching out to a particular set of Republicans who prioritize such institutions. These tend to be Republicans who style themselves as moderate and attend church.
When we asked Americans about the most important issue facing families in 2024, 16% said a “lack of programs” was among the most serious problems. This group was overwhelmingly Democratic (72%). But a single party’s support in politics is far from enough. The constitutional system requires large majorities in favor of a policy that persist over time. Without that kind of broad-based and consistent support, policies languish. The 13% of the public that both thinks a lack of programs is important and also are Republican is critical. Without their support, and perhaps the support of other moderate and church-going Republicans that can be won over, the idea of programmatic and institutional support for families will likely wither on the vine. This is not merely an opinion about politics; it is the pattern that exists for any policy.
The United States faces increasing budget crunches in future years as spending on health care, social security, and other such programs grows. Helping families, whether through tax credits or programs, is going to be more and more difficult without that broad based coalition. The argument that helping families is just not the responsibility of society is likely to win the day in the face of such headwinds. The path to a full-spectrum coalition that both rhetorically and substantively supports families lies — at least in part — through the moderate and church-going Republicans (and Democrats) that show up in our American Family Survey data.
By Christopher F. Karpowitz and Jeremy C. Pope
METHODOLOGY NOTE
Between August 22-29, 2024, YouGov interviewed 3,245 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 3,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4 categories), race (4 categories), and education (4 categories), to produce the final weight. The overall margin of error is +/- 2%.